TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

Preface

......................................................................................................................ii

Acronyms

.....................................................................................................................vi

List of Figures

....................................................................................................................vii

Chapter 1:

Introduction.................................................................................................1

1.1 Purpose of the manual.............................................................................1

1.2 Challenges of price analysis ....................................................................1

1.3 Organization of the manual......................................................................2

1.4 Concept of the worksheets......................................................................3

Chapter 2:

Price theory and analysis for early warning ..............................................4

2.1 Introduction.............................................................................................4

2.2 Why monitor prices? ...............................................................................4

2.3 Simple price theory.................................................................................4

      2.3.1 What do prices do?.........................................................................5

      2.3.2 What is a market? ...........................................................................6

      2.3.3 How are markets organized and what is the impact on

   prices?............................................................................................6

      2.3.4 Some key marketing concepts.........................................................6

      2.3.5 What price trends are anticipated after an average, above

    average, and below average harvest? .............................................8

       2.3.6 Influence of macroeconomic conditions on market

    behavior ........................................................................................9

Chapter 3: 

Food system context..................................................................................10

3.1 Introduction...........................................................................................10

3.2 Important contextual information..........................................................10

      3.2.1 Agricultural production patterns....................................................10

      3.2.2 Consumption patterns ...................................................................12

      3.2.3 Domestic marketing patterns.........................................................15

      3.2.4 External trade patterns ..................................................................16

      3.2.5 Historical and current marketing policies......................................18

      3.2.6 Macroeconomic influences on marketing and consumptio n..........20

3.3 Deciding what to monitor ......................................................................22

       3.3.1 Identification of existing markets with available data...................23

       3.3.2 Selection of markets.....................................................................23

       3.3.3 Selection of commodities.............................................................24

Chapter 4:

Data collection and management .............................................................26

4.1 Introduction...........................................................................................26

4.2 Data management and verification........................................................26

4.3 Selection of software to analyze and present price data .........................28

iii