GCOS GOOS WCRP/OOPC IX/3 

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Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) observing principles, thereby ensuring that they 

are useful for multiple purposes, including climate change. A strategic plan is required for the 

progressive, coordinated, periodic analyses and reanalyses of observations, which are 

necessary to incorporate lessons from new measurements and research, and also for the 

stewardship, archival and access of data, as well as the support to enable institutions to do 

these tasks. Increased resources are needed to achieve more effective exploitation of current 

and planned observations (especially for satellites) through increased international 

cooperation on developing integrated analyses and products. The transition from research to 

operational systems is also an important practical issue. It will be a task within COPES to 

work closely with GCOS, GOOS, GTOS, GEO, IGOS P to specify with more precision the 

observations needed to improve the realisable predictability of climate at various temporal 

and spatial scales. 

COPES modelling strategy has been proposed and will be refined in future.  

The three new WCRP structural elements responding to the needs of COPES are the 

WCRP Modelling Panel, Working Group on Observations and Assimilation (WGOA), and 

WCRP Task Forces. The prime role of the Modelling Panel will be to coordinate and integrate 

modelling activities across WCRP with the purpose of meeting the WCRP objectives, 

especially in the context of COPES.  

The WGOA is expected: 

a.  to foster, promote and coordinate synthesis of global observations from the 

atmosphere, oceans, land and cryosphere, and for the fully coupled system, through 

analysis, reanalysis and assimilation activities across WCRP, including the Modelling 

Panel; 

b.  to act as a focal point for WCRP interactions with other groups and programmes (e.g. 

WMO, IOC, GCOS, GOOS, GTOS, AOPC, OOPC, TOPC, JCOMM, IGBP, IGOS P, 

CEOS, IPCC, etc) on observational requirements for WCRP and assist in optimization 

of observational strategies for sustained observations; 

c.  to promote and coordinate WCRP information and data management activities, 

including development of web sites, in liaison with WCRP projects. 

Following a decision at JSC XXIV (March 2003), which recognised the importance of 

seasonal prediction as a specific objective under COPES, a limited term WCRP Task Force 

on Seasonal Prediction (TFSP) was established. The prime aim of the TFSP is to determine 

the extent to which seasonal prediction of the global climate system is possible and useful in 

all regions of the globe with currently available models and data. JSC XXV also decided to 

establish a Task Force for the further development of the COPES strategic framework for the 

WCRP for the period 2005 2015. The Task Force is expected to elaborate and detail the 

organisation and initial objectives of COPES so as to exploit to the full the expertise of the 

WCRP projects and other activities. 

The COPES initiative is intended to provide a stimulus for the science of the WCRP 

community, and to widen the recognition of its relevance for a sustainable future. All past and 

existing WCRP activities have been conceived and developed with the help of a wide 

community of climate scientists. Comments and suggestions on COPES are welcomed.  

Dr Sergey Gulev, a member of the WCRP JSC, complemented Dr Ryabinin's 

presentation by a condensed review of activities in the WCRP projects and the Working