economy, proactive policies that design and implement market mechanisms may be the 

cheapest option for protecting essential stocks of natural resources capital.  

The increased need for Indonesian policy makers to develop an understanding of trade offs 

between increased mitigation costs and economic growth resulted in NRMP investing in skills 

development.  An extensive training component was built into the project, and wide 

dissemination of study results was made.  Rather than sell the results, NRMP adopted the 

strategy of presenting alternative scenarios to decision makers and thereby encouraged GOI 

policy agents to develop visions of Indonesia s future.  These visions could then be turned into 

policy targets, which, in turn, could assist to specify policy interventions.  Table 1.1 presents 

some of the issues raised in developing long term visions about the structure and impacts of 

economic growth, using two growth scenarios. 

Table 1.1  Two Possible Scenarios of Indonesian Growth 

SCENARIO A 

SCENARIO B 

YEAR 2020

YEAR 2020

Rate of Growth of 

Per capita income growth has fallen  Per capita income growth has 

Per Capita Income

more or less steadily since 2003, the  accelerated slowly, but more or less 

year Indonesia became a net oil  continuously since 1998, due to 

importer and natural resource depletion  well thought out, long term policies 

became evident on an economy wide  and planning for long term 

basis.

sustainable growth.

Size of Urban 

The urban population has now reached  The urban population stands at 151 

Population/Demand 

168 million.  Last year, Jakarta s  million.  But because regional urban 

for Urban Services

population reached 25 million for the first  centers have grown rapidly, 

time.

Jakarta s population has just 

reached 12.2 million

Rural Urban Income 

The rural urban wage differential has  Wages in the agricultural sector 

Distribution

now reached 18 to 1.  The government  have increased greatly due to the 

is becoming increasingly concerned  government s sustainable 

about a rural insurgency.

agriculture development program.

Demand for Energy/ 

Energy consumption and air pollution  Energy demand is 5 times higher 

Air Pollution

levels are eight times higher than in  than in 1995.  Air pollution about 

1995.

the same.

Food Self 

The agricultural resource has become  Rice self sufficiency has been 

Sufficiency/ 

so degraded that hard won rice self 

maintained, and along with it, food 

Agricultural Output

sufficiency has been lost.

self sufficiency.

Productivity of 

Inland, coastal, and open ocean Marine resource are in a healthy 

Marine Resource

fisheries have been depleted.  Indonesia  state.  The marine resource 

became a net importer of seafood  provides a large share of animal 

products in 2016.  Income from marine  protein requirements, with an 

resources began falling sharply in 2014.

excess left over for export.

Productivity of 

In 9 years, the entire commercial value  Some of the forest has 

Forest Resource

of the forest will be gone.  Income from it  disappeared, but the present level 

began to fall sharply in 2014.

of income derived from it can be 

maintained indefinitely.

Source:  NRMP presentation to Bappenas, 1994. 

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