Table 5: Tanzania ~ Chronology of Key Events

Normal 

RAINFALL

 periods    unimodal areas (U) Nov  Apr ( main  or  long  rains);  bimodal areas (B) Oct Dec (vuli) and  Feb May (masika)

Normal 

HARVEST

 periods (major food crops)    unimodal areas  (U) Jun Sep; bimodal areas (B) Jan Mar (vuli) and Jun Sep (masika).

U

B

DROUGHT / FLOOD EVENTS

KEY INFORMATION / DECISIONS

FOOD AID OPERATIONS

No

delayed onset of long / main rains

 in unimodal areas of

v

central & southern Tanzania,  

following a poor 1995/6

 96

production year

 in many areas

96

Dec

widespread 

failure of vuli short rains

 (Oct Dec) in

bimodal areas

J

vuli harvest in bimodal areas of N. Tanzania (20 30% of

joint assessment mission (GOT/  UN)

 to drought  

an 97

national annual food  production)  is forecast to be greatly

affected areas

reduced; livestock & perennial crop production are also affected;

cereal prices rise sharply

F

main rains continue patchy & below average

eb 97

prolonged unseasonable dry conditions in pastoral &

agro pastoral areas

livestock prices fall, cattle mortality rises

97

Ma

normal peak of long / main rains in unimodal areas  

reports from regions

 to PMO of drought and

GOT starts relief & commercial

r 9

rainfall continues below average

impending food shortages

releases

 from Strategic Grain Reserve (10,000

7

in bimodal areas, masika rains start late (end of March /

FAO/ WFP joint assessment (with GoT & UNDP)

MT maize allocated to worst affected areas)

April)

estimates 670,000 people in need of relief food due to effects of

WFP distributes 500 MT in some of the

drought

worst hit areas

village relief committees formed

97

Ap

Prospects for the main harvest in `ugali bowl' areas of

GoT bans maize exports

WFP  EMOP 5825

 (in response to poor

r 9

southern highlands are considered good

vuli harvest) allocates 10,000 MT for 200,000

7

Aggregate food production is forecast to be 15 20%

people `worst affected' by drought, for 4 months

lower than last year's good harvest.

food prices fall in most areas due to SGR releases,

marketing of farm stocks, and export ban

Ma

Above average rainfall over northern, northern coast &

FSD preliminary crop forecast

 indicates a national

y 9

Lake Victoria Regions: harvest prospects there look good

production deficit of 523,000 MT for the 1996/97 production year

7

Harvesting starts in central unimodal regions, but

  the biggest shortfall since the 1984 drought

season generally ends poorly

97

Ju

(SGR  distributions continue)

n

Ju

harvesting of masika crops continues

FAO/ WFP joint assessment (with GoT, UNDP &

(WFP distributes locally purchased

l 9

USAID)

 warns of  imminent food crisis / famine  in nine drought 

maize under drought EMOP 5825)

7

hit regions

Regions send food aid requests to PMO

A

main July/ August harvest is judged a failure 

in some

FSD's Food Security Bulletin (released August 15)

ug 97

areas

revises estimate of national cereal deficit to 766,000 MT

food prices drop slightly from July level, but remain 50 

(excluding  SGR stock requirement), and recommends  GoT to

100% above 4 year average

appeal to donors for approximately 10% of this quantity in food aid

FEWS Watch

 reports need for donor funded relief

operations

Prime Minister writes to the Regions urging national

mobilization to fight the threat of famine

S

Cereal prices are rising across the country

GOT declares emergency

 (Sep 15) and appeals to

food aid commitments are made

ep 97

donors for 76,000 MT food to assist 1.4 million people for the

immediately by USA, EU, Germany & Australia, in

coming 3 6 months

response to government appeal

import tax on maize waived

 for Sep Dec period

FEWS Trip Report  to Dodoma & Singida

97

Oc

Above average October rains signal an early start to the

FEWS Trip Report  to Arusha, Kilimanjaro and Tanga

further donor pledges for new EMOP from

t

vuli season in bimodal regions, and to the main season in several

Canada, Finland & UK

unimodal regions

No

vuli  harvest prospects are good due to adequate & even

WFP organizes

village targeting

 exercise by NGOs for

distributions continue from  EMOP 5825

v

November rains, and increased area planted

EMOP 5889

EMOP 5889 approved

 by Rome Nov 6

 97

planting continues in unimodal areas

SCF Food Economy Analysis of Mtwara & Lindi

 finds

cash crop income sufficient to cope with food aid problems  

targeting to these regions subsequently revised

97

Dec

 wet to very wet  conditions across the country; 

flooding

GOT waiver of maize import tax ends     only a small

pledges to new drought EMOP (5889)

& waterlogging

 destroy crops in some vuli areas,  hamper

proportion of  the anticipated 700,000 MT has been imported

total 90% of request.  

Distributions begin

planting in masika areas, and disrupt transport

FEWS Trip Report: Mara Mwanza & Shinyanga

December 8

,  but  are disrupted by 

rain damaged

roads, bridges, & railways

J

unseasonably wet conditions over two thirds of the country

only 1,500 MT of EMOP distributed so far,

an 98

excessive rain damages some crops in both bimodal &

but no reports of serious welfare problems

unimodal areas, but conditions are variable

good vuli harvest reported in Lake Victoria zone

F

drier than normal February benefits harvesting of vuli

FAO/ WFP joint assessment

 reports low vuli  harvest  in

market and relief supplies to deficit areas

eb 98

season crops

Arusha, Kilimanjaro & Tanga

are blocked by flood damage to roads

98

Ma

below average rainfall over whole country

FEWS Trip Report  to Lindi & Mtwara

allocations / 

area targeting of EMOP

r

food prices decline, due to availability of vuli crops and dry

5889 revised

: food distributions continue,

covering also flood victims identified during

roads for market supplies

monitoring of drought relief

98

Ap

good harvest expected in unimodal central regions

FEWS Trip Report  to Mara & Mwanza

general 

EMOP distribution stops at the

r

maize & bean prices declining since January; current

end of April

, with less than half of the originally 

prices below nominal 1996/7 prices

planned quantity distributed

Ma

normal rainfall distribution over most of the country brings

FSD provisionally  forecasts above average production for

WFP proposes quick action FFW  &

y 9

good national harvest prospects

1997/8, with 261,000 MT exportable cereal surplus

School feeding projects in Arusha, Coast,

8

market supplies of food are reported to be adequate, and

Dodoma, Kilimanjaro & Tanga Regions

prices fall steadily across the country

heavy rain has reduced maize, sorghum & millet harvests,

but raised rice, banana, root & tuber production

Sources: FEWS Tanzania reports, various interviews and documents

A 5