food, and generated consensus on the action needed. The role of rapid, often inter agency,

assessment missions in influencing Stage 1 food aid targeting emerged as an important cross 

country issue, and is discussed in Chapter 2.

In retrospect everyone (including the FSD) agrees that the scale of the predicted food deficit was

over estimated.  Updating of the sample frame and other elements of the high tech crop

forecasting system will require funding if accurate production forecasts are to be made in the future

(staff capacity is clearly not the problem in this case, as the FSD has a highly trained expert staff).

More accurate production forecasts   and more importantly a broader based early warning system

able to take account of  trade, other food and income sources, and coping capacity at a

decentralized level   would have made possible a more accurate estimate of which areas really

needed food, and how much.   However, such information was not available at the beginning of the

emergency and only became available in small pieces as the relief operation progressed. In this

situation, the government and international community prepared for the contingency of a major

famine (which fortunately did not develop), while distributing relatively small amounts of aid and

trying to monitor conditions in the meantime.

During the planning and implementation of the EMOP, considerable attention was paid to

targeting.  Distribution was delegated to NGOs due to concerns about the poor targeting of earlier

relief (under EMOP 5825) which was channeled through the government system.   Starting with a

Table 6:  Tanzania ~ Regional (stage 1) targeting of WFP drought relief

EMOP 5889, 1997/98  (MT)

Preliminary

Distribution

Revised

Actual

allocation

plan

allocation

distributions

(Nov 97) 

1

(Dec 97) 

2

(Mar 98) 

3

(to Apr 98) 

4

Arusha

16,251

3,216

3,551

2,807

Coast (Pwani)

3,548

912

1,453

1,194

Dodoma

6,215

15,906

20,424

8,465

Iringa

4,727

469

469

200

Kagera

0

0

0

0

Kigoma

0

0

0

0

Kilimanjaro

1,682

663

665

403

Lindi

13,119

429

0

0

Mara

2,846

3,689

1,343

1,285

Mbeya

0

0

0

0

Morogoro

2,540

815

978

1,023

Mtwara

5,600

335

0

0

Mwanza

1,154

2,580

4,216

1,125

Rukwa

0

0

0

0

Ruvuma

0

0

0

0

Shinyanga

8,217

1,122

3,779

747

Singida

4,381

6,139

6,139

1,755

Tabora

3,305

3,767

2,878

961

Tanga

2,416

620

1,057

349

National total

76,001

40,663

46,952

20,313*

 Sources:

1

WFP EMOP 5889 Project Document, ref 41;

2

WFP EMOP 5889 Distribution Plan, ref 42;

3

WFP EMOP 5889 Update Report, March 1998;

4

WFP EMOP 5889 Monitoring Update, July 1998, ref 46;

* total of NGO reports received, not full total distributed

A 7