TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

LIST OF ACRONYMS, POLISH NAMES, AND GLOSSARY OF TERMS

1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: THE OBJECTIVES OF THIS STUDY AND THE

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

1.1 Summary of Major Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

1.2 Summary of Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

1.3 Overview of This Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

2.0 THE DEMAND FOR HOUSING AND MORTGAGE CREDIT IN THE

UNITED STATES AND EUROPE AND POLAND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

2.1 The Demand for Housing and Mortgage Credit in the United States and

Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

2.2 The Demand for Housing and Mortgage Credit in Poland and Other

Advanced Transition Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

3.0 THE GOALS AND METHODOLOGIES OF ALTERNATIVE TYPES OF

HOUSING DEMAND AND MORTGAGE CREDIT STUDIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

3.1 A Compendium of Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

3.2 Issues in Model Structure and a Brief Review of Studies of Mortgage

Credit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

3.3 Literature Review: Theoretical Basis of the Demand for Mortgage Credit

and Estimation in Practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

4.0 SPECIFICATION OF DEMAND MODELS IN POLAND AND OTHER

TRANSITION COUNTRIES:  BARRIERS TO ESTIMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

4.1 Potential and Effective Demand in Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

4.2 Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Data in Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

5.0 NEXT STEPS FOR POLAND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

ANNEXES

I.

Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Models of the Demand for Housing and

Mortgage Credit

II.

Review of Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Data in Poland and Gmina

Studies of Housing Demand

III.

Information in the Mortgage Credit Portfolios of Polish Banks

IV. U.S. Household Surveys for Housing and Consumer Finance