East European Regional   

6

Housing Sector Assistance Project   

Institute, the National Association of Home Builders, the Polish Federation of Valuers, and

so forth.

In summary, the key findings include the following:

!

Macroeconomic Data.

  The available macroeconomic data are seriously

hampered by lack of a consistent historical time series and by limitations on

accuracy and measurement of the value of the housing stock and of new

production.  GUS continues to adapt its national accounts to international

standards, but it will take some time before a consistent time series (of quarterly

data) is available.

!

Microeconomic Data.

  In contrast, Poland has a good variety of microeconomic

data collected variously by GUS, the Housing Research Institute, and a

number of gminas which are very useful for descriptive analysis of the housing

stock (although issues regarding valuation still apply).

Importantly, however, because these microeconomic data are obtained from a

variety of sources, and do not include key variables on household income and

finances (including the use of mortgage credit), they cannot constitute the type

of representative household database that is a prerequisite for estimation of

formal macroeconomic models.

!

Bank Portfolio Database.

  Very useful computerized databases could be

developed from existing bank portfolios.  These could provide correlations

between household and loan characteristics, an analysis over time of loans

already in the portfolio (the factors that contribute to good underwriting and

repayment histories), the key characteristics of the bank's customers, and so

forth.  Data collected by the Mortgage Fund to supervise loan quality may also

be investigated for use in database preparation.

These internal databases, however, cannot address questions regarding the

overall demand for mortgage credit: that is, the probability of applying for

mortgage credit and the overall impact of demographic and economic factors on

the demand for housing or the amount of credit.  Again, these types of analyses

require a representative sample of households, both those interested in (and

able to obtain) mortgage credit and those not.

!

Quantitative Demand Studies.

  A number of studies of housing demand have

been undertaken in Poland.  Generally, however, these have been estimates of

housing  need,  often defined as the difference between the number of

households in Poland and the number of housing units meeting a certain

standard of acceptability.  While such studies may illustrate Poland's housing