East European Regional   

8

Housing Sector Assistance Project   

every other year as is the case with the American Housing Survey in the U.S.,

on a representative sample of households.  The sample could provide not only

nationwide estimates but also individual estimates for Poland's largest cities

and/or other geographic areas, for example.  Microeconomic data from this

survey will be crucial to estimating the basic models for the demand for housing

and mortgage credit (and consumer credit as well).

6

!

Valuation of Housing.

  Develop systematic procedures for compiling data on

the market value of housing and on the stock of, and annual originations of,

mortgage credit. This could involve a wide range of institutions, including HUDA,

the National Bank of Poland, and the realtors, appraisers, and banks.

7

!

Demand Models.

  Develop modifications to the traditional (formal) models of

demand for housing and mortgage credit relating to the barriers between

potential and effective demand in Poland (and other transition countries).  As

discussed in section 3.0, the relationship between the demand for housing and

the demand for mortgage credit may be even more complex (and less closely

correlated) in Poland than in the United States or many of the countries in

Western Europe.  This fact, in addition to the barriers to effective demand,

underscores the need for Poland to develop its own databases and models.

!

Housing Indicators.

  Compare housing indicators in Poland with those in the

advanced emerging nations (for example, Malaysia, Chile, and Turkey).  It

would also be useful to analyze those nations in Western Europe where

mortgage credit is just now rapidly increasing in importance (Spain, Portugal,

and Ireland)  to help establish benchmarks for emergence from transition.

8

!

Macroeconomic Data.  

Continue improvements now being undertaken by GUS

in the methodologies underlying derivation and estimation of macroeconomic

aggregates for the national accounts on housing investment, depreciation, new

6

The data from the survey would initially be  cross section  data (a representative sample conducted at

one point in time).  Over time, the information would yield a combined  cross section and time series  database;

among the important outputs would be estimates of the income and price elasticities of demand for housing and

mortgage credit.

7

UIC is currently preparing a report on  Property Valuation and Appraisal: U.S. Information Systems and

Recommendations for Poland.   Systematic under reporting of value (for tax reasons) would pose a very serious

problem for the interpretation of formally estimated relationships.

8

The bibliography provides several references to the Housing Indicators Project, which collects housing

data on emerging and transition nations.  Annex I suggests that Poland might study the benchmark indicators in

Turkey, Chile, and Malaysia, all examples of advanced emerging nations with a longer history of establishing

market based economies.   For more information, the Housing Indicators Project can be reached on the Internet

at http://www.unchs.unon.org/unon/unchs/indicat/indihome.htm