The Feasibility of Estimating the Demand

for Residential Mortgage Credit in Poland

9

production, and so forth.  These data, in years to come, will provide the

necessary time series for estimation of macroeconomic models.

!

Computerized Database of Bank Portfolios.

  Prepare a computerized

database of mortgage credit information based on existing bank portfolios,

linking household level data on loan characteristics and household

characteristics.  The data on loan portfolios collected by the Mortgage Fund may

also be utilized.

!

NBP Data of Mortgage Lending

.  NBP should collect and separately

report on a regular, on going basis aggregate data from bank portfolios on

residential and commercial real estate lending.   

1.3

Overview of This Study

Section 2.0 briefly describes the role of mortgage credit in the United States,

Western Europe, and Poland and the types of barriers to realization of housing and/or

credit demand likely to be operative in transition countries.  Section 3.0 provides an

overview of the various types of models used in the demand for housing and credit; data

requirements and issues in estimation are also noted.  Also, a brief literature review of

estimations of the demand for mortgage credit in the United States is provided.  Issues

regarding the estimation of these traditional models for Poland are discussed in section

4.0, including a critique of the available macroeconomic and microeconomic data. Section

5.0 provides recommendations for next steps in Poland.

The annexes play an especially important supporting role in these discussions.

First, as noted, they are addressed to various technicians, including economists,

econometricians, and survey experts; the main text has drawn from them but attempted to

make the material more digestible for general policy makers.  Annex I presents, in a formal

econometric fashion, macroeconomic and microeconomic models of the demand for

housing and the demand for mortgage credit; this annex suggests adaptations to these

models suitable for Poland and other transition and emerging countries.  Annex II provides

a critique of macroeconomic and microeconomic data in Poland; the review is somewhat

technical because it comments on the methodologies used in the national accounts and

because it follows from the data requirements of the econometric models specified in

annex I.

Annex III presents a review of the data available on mortgage lending in Polish

banks and the Mortgage Fund.  This background analysis was undertaken to determine

what information is collected and stored by banks in the lending process and how much

of it is computerized.  Finally, annex IV provides a summary overview of the two major

household surveys in the United States used for estimation of housing models and finance

models: the American Housing Survey (AHS) and the Survey of Consumer Finance (SCF).