East European Regional   

10

Housing Sector Assistance Project   

The AHS survey form is attached; selected portions of the SCF are also attached (the

compete form is available from UIC or from the Worldwide Web, but it is quite lengthy).

Since we recommend that Poland develop a household survey, however, these documents

may be particularly pertinent.

2.0

THE DEMAND FOR HOUSING AND MORTGAGE CREDIT IN THE UNITED

STATES AND EUROPE AND POLAND

The role of housing in the U.S. economy, and in the lives of its households, may be

somewhat unique worldwide.  Because of this, it should not be viewed as a benchmark for

potential demand in Poland, at least not at this time.  Similarly, in Western Europe,

although there is huge diversity in the importance of mortgage debt in the various

economies, it plays an extremely important role in most of the largest countries.  Not only

are there major differences in income across the Western and transition economies, but

differences in many other factors greater mobility, greater access to choice of tenure and

housing type, greater efficiency in raising long term funds for the lending and in the

experience of the lending institutions, and so forth.  In addition, households in Poland have

not had many decades of opportunity to save and accumulate wealth that might be used

as equity in a home that is, accumulate a down payment.  Rather, in order for Poland to

establish benchmarks for the levels of housing demand and mortgage lending that might

be expected, it may wish to look to the advanced emerging economies, which, like Poland,

are in the process of instituting market based reforms. Similarly, the housing finance

sectors of certain of the Western European countries are just now maturing, which may

provide other lessons learned.

2.1

The Demand for Housing and Mortgage Credit in the United States and

Western Europe

The profile of mortgage credit in the United States includes the following factors:

!

The rate of home ownership is very high (over 65 percent).

!

A very high proportion of home purchases are financed with mortgage loans: 40

to 60 percent of households currently hold mortgage loans (depending on their

definition); at the point of purchase of a home, the vast majority secure a

mortgage loan.

!

As a consequence, there is a very high level of mortgage debt outstanding in

the United States; at roughly 6 trillion, it, in fact, now exceeds the level of

government debt outstanding.