The Feasibility of Estimating the Demand

for Residential Mortgage Credit in Poland

13

lenders and households, in the efficiency of the mortgage markets were overcome?  We

feel that there may be more potential lessons learned here for Poland than by focusing on

the various ratios and utilization figures from the United States, Germany, and the United

Kingdom.

2.2

The Demand for Housing and Mortgage Credit in Poland and Other Advanced

Transition Countries

As mentioned, Poland has made progress in the development of its housing finance

sector.  A growing number of lending institutions are competing for mortgage business,

and progress continues in reducing the various legal and administrative barriers inhibiting

the sector's advancement.  Also, as mentioned, the demand for housing is growing in

Poland, although it is difficult to measure because the level of housing completions may

understate actual activity.

Table 1 compares completions with units under construction (in addition, using

similar data, annex II points out that the data suggest an exceptionally long construction

period, which seems rather unlikely on average).

Table 1

Housing Units Under Construction and Completed

Date

Housing Units Under Construction (000)

Housing Units Completed (000)

1993

n.a.

94.4

1994

509.8

71.6

1995

537.7

67.1

1996

576.5

62.1

1997

602.9

73.7

Whatever the actual level of housing demand, however, it does appear that the

relative role of mortgage credit in the economy is extremely small.  Estimates of total

mortgage debt outstanding at the end of 1997 place it at about PLN 1,740 million.  As

compared with 1997 GDP of PLN 429,700 million, the share is less than 0.5 percent.

Furthermore, analysis suggests that only one in five home purchasers utilizes a mortgage

loan in Poland.

11

11

The estimates of total mortgage credit outstanding (and use of mortgage credit) were prepared by CREI

and Jacek 

aszek; official estimates are not published by NBP.  By September 1998, it is estimated that total

mortgage credit had increased by another 500 million PLN.