East European Regional   

20

Housing Sector Assistance Project   

Table 3

Macroeconomic Models

Type of Estimation

Required Data

Major Uses/Users

Comment For Poland

Macroeconomic Models

Macroeconomic

A major component of

Poland should change

of Housing Demand

aggregates on housing

GDP; estimates of the

the construct of its

investment, housing

long term income and

macroeconomic data

consumption, sales/

price elasticities of

series, including

rental prices, relative

demand are vital to

valuation of housing; this

prices of other goods,

analysis of economic

will become a very

household socio 

policy. Users include

important economic

economic data, etc.

MOF, HUDA, NBP, PBA, policy tool as demand

banks, and research

expands in the future.

institutions. 

Macroeconomic Models

Macroeconomic

Business cycle analysis

Poland should easily be

of Housing Starts and

aggregates of housing

and forecasting; major

able to streamline data

Completions

starts, construction

economic indicators. 

already collected on

costs, relative housing

Users include MOF,

housing starts, permits,

costs, household socio 

HUDA, NBP, PBA,

and completions and to

economic data, etc.

banks, and research

refine estimation of

institutions.  

completions to better

reflect actual activity.

Macroeconomic

Macroeconomic

Major component of

This will become

Demand for Mortgage

aggregates of mortgage

financial sector assets

increasingly important as

Credit

credit, housing sales

and household debt. 

the sector grows; NBP

prices, relative price of

Users include PBA,

should initiate collection

housing and of mortgage banks, MOF, HUDA,

reporting procedures;

credit, household socio 

NBP, and research

recording of actual sales

economic data, etc.

institutions.  

prices will become very

crucial.

Second, a  reverse  relationship may also be operative the effective demand for

housing may be constrained by the limited availability of mortgage credit the probability

of receiving a mortgage loan at all and/or the amount of credit granted.  This is also true

in the United States; some households that wish to purchase a home with a mortgage loan

are denied credit.  U.S. government programs in mortgage insurance and other

affordability (and credit) enhancement can assist these households, as is the case in other

countries with these types of subsidies.  Nevertheless, there are still households that, for

whatever reasons, do not have a sufficient down payment, even though they may be able

to service a loan; they are referred to as  liquidity constrained.   Nevertheless, while

liquidity and other borrowing constraints (market failures, that is, not factors such as low

income) may also be evident in developed markets, they are likely to be more pronounced

in a transition setting.