The Feasibility of Estimating the Demand

for Residential Mortgage Credit in Poland

21

In summary, the factors that determine the probability of seeking and/or receiving

a loan are likely to be somewhat different from those that determine housing demand, and

these differences are likely to be emphasized in the transition countries.

Table 4

Microeconomic Models

Type of Estimation

Required Data

Major Uses/Users

Comment For Poland

Microeconomic Housing

Household survey data Estimation of major

Development of the

Demand Function

on housing investment, economic, financial, and

household survey and

housing costs,

social parameters of the

sample to support a

household

household's demand for

microeconomic

socioeconomic data,

housing (including income

database is our key

etc.

and price elasticities);

recommendation for

 educates 

Poland.

macroeconomic models

and provides major inputs

to forecasting. Users

include MOF, HUDA, PBA,

banks, builders, real

estate brokers, and

research institutions.

Microeconomic Demand

Household survey data Estimation of similar

The household data

for Mortgage Credit

on mortgage credit,

parameters as above for

survey would also be

relative prices, relative

housing; could (or should)

designed to serve this

returns on assets,

be estimated as part of a

purpose.  Will gain

household socio 

system along with housing importance as credit

economic data, etc.

demand.  Users include

grows.

banks, PBA, NBP, and

research institutions.

Models of Tenure Choice Household survey data Estimation of these

Lack of mobility is

and Models of Mobility

in a time series sample  probabilities for Poland

thought to be a major

Decisions

on mobility and

important for

barrier between potential

changes in tenure

understanding factors

and effective demand. 

choice

important in housing

Analyses of mobility and

demand, including barriers tenure choice will

to demand.  Users include become increasingly

PBA, banks, builders, real

important as elements of

estate brokers, and

demand decisions.

gminas.

Models of Portfolio

Household survey data Understanding the role of

A secondary and long 

Choice

with complete data on

housing as the main (or a

term goal for modeling

income, assets, and

major) household asset.

more complex models of

wealth

Users include PBA, NBP,

demand; also important

banks, and research

for analysis by banks.

institutions. 

Table 4 (Continued)