The Feasibility of Estimating the Demand

for Residential Mortgage Credit in Poland

29

be revealing in the following manner: the degree to which effective demand for credit is

limited by (1) limited mobility of potential movers; (2) income and assets constraints on

borrowing; (3) other restrictions on borrowing reflecting the traditions and/or preferences

of both borrowers and lenders; and (4) supply restrictions concerning available housing

types and values.

4.2

Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Data in Poland

Annex II presents a review of the macroeconomic and microeconomic data in

Poland that would be required for formal analyses of the demand for housing and the

demand for mortgage credit. This review follows from annex I that is, the authors followed

the constructs of the equations presented in annex I and provided a critique of the data

that would be necessary to measure each of the key variables.

27

Limitations of Poland's Macroeconomic Data for Estimation of Demand for

Housing and Credit

In summary, problems with Poland's macroeconomic housing data include the

following:

!

Consistent and appropriately valued time series data are difficult or impossible

to obtain.

!

The market valuation of the existing stock, or of newly constructed stock, is not

appropriate in the aggregate.

!

The housing consumption variable covers only part of the stock.

!

Investment in housing may not be measured properly.

!

New dwellings are underestimated.

!

Household income may not be measured properly (from the GUS survey, per

capita estimates tend to be developed rather than household level data).

27

The annex II critique, while very informative, is somewhat technical in two ways: (1) reference is made

to actual variables specified in the equations presented in annex I; and (2) for macroeconomic data, in particular,

the discussion refers to accounting conventions and estimation procedures that are familiar to those working with

national account data.  Thus, again, this section summarizes the key findings from this critique in less technical

terms.