East European Regional   

32

Housing Sector Assistance Project   

In summary, it is suggested that Poland should undertake the following:

!

Household Survey on Housing and Consumer Finance.

  Develop a long 

term, ongoing  Survey for Housing and Consumer Finance  and prepare a

representative sample of households.  Microeconomic data from this survey will

be crucial to estimating the basic models of the demand for housing and

mortgage credit (and consumer credit as well, for example); the survey could be

adapted from questions already existing in the AHS and SCF surveys in the

United States (see annex IV).

!

Computerized Databases.

  Prepare a database based on the Household

Survey noted above.  Also, prepare a computerized database of mortgage credit

information based on existing bank portfolios, including household level data on

both loan characteristics and household characteristics.

!

Valuation of Housing.

  Develop systematic procedures for compiling data on

the market value of housing: on the stock of, and annual originations of, housing

units. This could involve a wide range of institutions, including HUDA, NBP, and

the realtors, appraisers, and banks.

!

Quantitative Demand Models.

  Develop modifications to formal models of the

demand for housing and the demand for mortgage credit that are most suitable

for Poland.  Adjustments to the traditional models might relate to the barriers

between potential and effective demand in Poland (and other transition

countries).  In addition, the (apparently) lagged relationship between growth in

GDP in Poland and an increase in the demand for housing should be

investigated, as should the factors that determine why the demand for mortgage

credit may not be as robustly related to the demand for housing (or may also be

related with a substantial lag) as might be expected from results in developed

countries.

!

Studies of Housing Indicators.

  Compare housing indicators in Poland with

those in the advanced emerging nations (such as Turkey, Malaysia, and Chile)

to help establish benchmarks for emergence from transition. Compare mortgage

credit indicators and the institutional evolution of mortgage credit with countries

such as Spain, Portugal, and Ireland, where use of mortgage credit is relatively

low but growing rapidly.

!

Macroeconomic Data.

  Improve the methodologies underlying derivation and

estimation of macroeconomic aggregates for the national accounts on housing

investment, depreciation, new production, and so forth.