2.6

Conclusions

Again, macroeconomic analysis of housing demand is seriously hampered by a lack

of consistent historical data and inaccurate assumptions and classifications.  For housing

studies in Poland, investment data and data on new dwellings are probably the most

critical, but at the same time the least reliable. Data on general financial conditions are

available, but there is no detailed data on mortgage credits. Finally, due to changes in

classification methods, economic data on existing and newly constructed housing stock,

such as detailed studies of the depreciation of housing, are not easy to track in recent

years.

3.0

ASSESSMENT OF MICROECONOMIC DATA AVAILABLE TO CONDUCT

STUDIES OF THE DEMAND FOR HOUSING AND MORTGAGE CREDIT

The determination of effective demand for housing based on microeconomic models

is impeded by a wide range of factors, both historic and present.  Most glaring is the

inadequacy in the reporting of household income for the purposes of assessing housing

and credit demand. Until 1992, when the personal income tax system was introduced,

household income was measured through a household income survey methodology which

can be disaggregated only to the micro regional level and for five socio economic groups.

While some demographic and housing characteristic data useful for a stock/user matrix

3

analysis exists, critical detail on income, household descriptors, tenure duration, and more

detailed information on housing products and locational characteristics are not available.

More importantly, all the micro data should relate to a given household, not drawn from a

number of different sources.

  In addition, the lack of historic and current data on housing

costs and prices and the distortions in the market due to non transparent subsidies, both

historic and present, affect the supply side analysis.

Below is a review of data and background information sources to assist in the

microeconomic analysis of demand for housing and residential credit.  In addition to GUS

and HRI (Housing Research Institute) data, a few local surveys have been conducted to

begin to ferret out information on effective demand, and background data sources have

been used to corroborate income information.

3.1

Microeconomic Data Produced by Central Statistical Office (GUS) and

Regional Statistical Offices (VUS)

#

Census Data.

  The last census was conducted in 1988. The next census will be

conducted in 2002.  Based on the 1998 census, reports are available that provide data and

3

See Annex I for a brief discussion of stock/user analysis.  Basically, this is descriptive analysis which

simply disaggregates the housing stock by tenure and household characteristics.

II 6